I found three good arbs on football matches yesterday and managed to bet a total of £1,900 with Ladbrokes on Morocco and Mali in the African Nations Cup as well as Liverpool in the Premiership. Mali were playing Benin (I must confess I had never even heard of either of these two countries). This produced a very satisfying £70 profit.
Ladbrokes reissued the Liverpool coupon after cutting the price from 4/6 to 4/7, but as always I had taken several spare copies when the orginals first appeared. Their computer system will always accept them.
Also I got to the semifinals of the Monday Blackjack Tourny freeroll that I play in collecting £10 so I was pretty satisfied with my day’s results when I opened up Stan James Poker to play a few hands late in the evening.
Surprisingly, there were no tables of omaha high-low open at either the $20, $40 or $50 buyin levels. (Is this a sign that online poker has passed its peak? A year or two ago and I would have been able to choose the best game from half a dozen tables). So, I put down $100 for the bigger game that was running. I recognised several people from my normal game and have the bankroll to play here so although this is a bigger game than I normally play, I was happy.
Within a few hands I had got myself stacked after making a move on the flop on a guy I didn’t know. I then fired again on the turn and after a long think got called and lost $100. Really, really stupid play on my part and something I never would have done if I was playing in a smaller game. For the last couple of weeks I have been playing pretty tight whilst racking up the 100 raked hands to qualify for the SJ freerolls and have won $85 or so. Now it is gone, in one hand when I was completely dead with 0% chance of winning.
If I am honest, I would have to say this is not the first time this has happened. I play well, maybe catch some good flops and the bank balance increases nicely. Then I say to myself, “Hey, you could win twice as much if you moved up a level or played twice as much”. Very often, the bad players I have good notes on can be found playing for bigger stakes so how hard can it be? But it seems that I play worse when there is more money in the middle of the table.
I find it more difficult to put hands down, so get quartered more often. Maybe if I played the $100 buyins more often I would get used to them? But how much would that cost me to learn? And what if it turns out that the $50 buyin is the right level for me?
Most people lose at poker so I guess this would be “a normal experience” for them. Although unpleasant, losing buy-ins in plo8 is going to happen. Its a drawing game and sometimes people will outdraw you. But if you are putting your money when you have positive ev you will be ok in the long run. What seems to happen to me is that I try too hard to win every pot, once I move to the bigger games something I am constantly aware I shouldn’t do at the lower levels.
So, I am trying to put down my thoughts on paper, to try and learn from what went wrong. If any of this helps you too that’s fine, but really, I am concerned about me.
Firstly, the matched betting is now the biggest source of profits for me. I am winning £200+/week from this. Trying to win a similar amount from the poker is probably over-optimistic. In the past although I have been a consistent winner in the cash games, £50-£100/week has been typical.
The matched betting is also much more consistent. A losing day from arbing is pretty unusual and I have never had a losing week whereas at poker sometimes you are going to lose, what is important is only to lose the minimum.
My experience with matched betting has made me more likely to tilt when playing poker now, compared to a couple of years ago.
Because I am just constantly accumulating profits with the arbing I expect subconciously to be able to do the same at all gambling. And of course that’s not going to happen.
Seconly, I enjoy poker (well, enjoy winning anyway) but £50 or $100 seems to be the level at which I am afraid to lose. I start to think more about the money ( and what I could have done with it) and less about making correct decisions. Even though I have over £7,000 in my gambling bankroll I am playing as if this was “scared money” once I move up to the $100 tables. I just don’t feel comfortable losing £50 in one hand. Or to put it another way the guilt I feel from losing outweighs the pleasure I feel on the occasions I end up winning the pot. The fact that some other players (who I know are losing players) are happy to lose at the $100 as well as the $50 tables is irrevelant.
The conclusion seems pretty obvious, just don’t play at the $100 tables any more. I have decided this before, on at least two occasions. I can’t explain why I am finding it difficult.
So, I have decided to take a break from poker for a week. Maybe spend the time writing some plo8 articles for my website and hopefully refocus my brain on what is necessary to play winning poker.
So +£20 for the day overall, but I felt terribly disappointed as I switched my compuer off.