I’ve had a number of little offers this year but nothing big. Still every little helps: a £10 free bet from Paddy Power, £9 from Bet Fred. 10 free spins at Canbet’s casino generating £8. A 10% bonus from Ladbrokes on a horsey bet
Good arbs also on the UEFA Cup Sporting Lisbon pretty much everywhere.
Boo Hoo! Dismal news, Bet365 have limited my a/c so that the most I can win on any bet is £40. I still qualify for all the offers but with the reduced limits it won’t be nearly so profitable. I don’t know why, but perhaps I had been overdoing the French football score score bets for their “no-score-bore” offer.
They often have the best odds for French football matches and recently had one £100, and two £50 correct score bets which all finished 0-0 thus getting a rebate of £200.
However, no businesses want customers who cost them money so it had to come sooner or later.
I found three good arbs on football matches yesterday and managed to bet a total of £1,900 with Ladbrokes on Morocco and Mali in the African Nations Cup as well as Liverpool in the Premiership. Mali were playing Benin (I must confess I had never even heard of either of these two countries). This produced a very satisfying £70 profit.
Ladbrokes reissued the Liverpool coupon after cutting the price from 4/6 to 4/7, but as always I had taken several spare copies when the orginals first appeared. Their computer system will always accept them.
Also I got to the semifinals of the Monday Blackjack Tourny freeroll that I play in collecting £10 so I was pretty satisfied with my day’s results when I opened up Stan James Poker to play a few hands late in the evening.
Surprisingly, there were no tables of omaha high-low open at either the $20, $40 or $50 buyin levels. (Is this a sign that online poker has passed its peak? A year or two ago and I would have been able to choose the best game from half a dozen tables). So, I put down $100 for the bigger game that was running. I recognised several people from my normal game and have the bankroll to play here so although this is a bigger game than I normally play, I was happy.
Within a few hands I had got myself stacked after making a move on the flop on a guy I didn’t know. I then fired again on the turn and after a long think got called and lost $100. Really, really stupid play on my part and something I never would have done if I was playing in a smaller game. For the last couple of weeks I have been playing pretty tight whilst racking up the 100 raked hands to qualify for the SJ freerolls and have won $85 or so. Now it is gone, in one hand when I was completely dead with 0% chance of winning.
If I am honest, I would have to say this is not the first time this has happened. I play well, maybe catch some good flops and the bank balance increases nicely. Then I say to myself, “Hey, you could win twice as much if you moved up a level or played twice as much”. Very often, the bad players I have good notes on can be found playing for bigger stakes so how hard can it be? But it seems that I play worse when there is more money in the middle of the table.
I find it more difficult to put hands down, so get quartered more often. Maybe if I played the $100 buyins more often I would get used to them? But how much would that cost me to learn? And what if it turns out that the $50 buyin is the right level for me?
Most people lose at poker so I guess this would be “a normal experience” for them. Although unpleasant, losing buy-ins in plo8 is going to happen. Its a drawing game and sometimes people will outdraw you. But if you are putting your money when you have positive ev you will be ok in the long run. What seems to happen to me is that I try too hard to win every pot, once I move to the bigger games something I am constantly aware I shouldn’t do at the lower levels.
So, I am trying to put down my thoughts on paper, to try and learn from what went wrong. If any of this helps you too that’s fine, but really, I am concerned about me.
Firstly, the matched betting is now the biggest source of profits for me. I am winning £200+/week from this. Trying to win a similar amount from the poker is probably over-optimistic. In the past although I have been a consistent winner in the cash games, £50-£100/week has been typical.
The matched betting is also much more consistent. A losing day from arbing is pretty unusual and I have never had a losing week whereas at poker sometimes you are going to lose, what is important is only to lose the minimum.
My experience with matched betting has made me more likely to tilt when playing poker now, compared to a couple of years ago.
Because I am just constantly accumulating profits with the arbing I expect subconciously to be able to do the same at all gambling. And of course that’s not going to happen.
Seconly, I enjoy poker (well, enjoy winning anyway) but £50 or $100 seems to be the level at which I am afraid to lose. I start to think more about the money ( and what I could have done with it) and less about making correct decisions. Even though I have over £7,000 in my gambling bankroll I am playing as if this was “scared money” once I move up to the $100 tables. I just don’t feel comfortable losing £50 in one hand. Or to put it another way the guilt I feel from losing outweighs the pleasure I feel on the occasions I end up winning the pot. The fact that some other players (who I know are losing players) are happy to lose at the $100 as well as the $50 tables is irrevelant.
The conclusion seems pretty obvious, just don’t play at the $100 tables any more. I have decided this before, on at least two occasions. I can’t explain why I am finding it difficult.
So, I have decided to take a break from poker for a week. Maybe spend the time writing some plo8 articles for my website and hopefully refocus my brain on what is necessary to play winning poker.
So +£20 for the day overall, but I felt terribly disappointed as I switched my compuer off.
I got to the semifinal of Paddy Power’s £150 blackjack freeroll tonight. Won £15 after about 45 minutes. This event runs weekly at 6pm on Wednesday’s is has proved to be a good source of cash over the years. I won it once (when the prize money was £250 picking up £100) but it is always over quite quickly so I always enter it if I am in.
The racing is going through a slow patch at the moment. Meetings are being abandoned due to the weather and arbs are proving hard to spot. However, I got another £5 free bet today from the lovely people at bet365 which surprised me a little as I haven’t given them much business apart from the Channel 4 Racing on Saturday.
On the bright side, I have been doing alot of football bets, especially with Ladbrokes. I reinvested most of my winnings from Reading v Spurs on Havant v Swansea. As I write this Swansea are 3 nil down (after 44 mins) so with luck I won’t have any money to collect tomorrow and the Ladbrokes’ staff can reassure themselves that all is right with the world and that eventually I will lose all my money. If only they knew that I want all my football bets to lose. I make the same profit win, lose or draw. Its far better for me to lose and have the money end up in my exchange account.
There is a monster arb in tonight FA Cup matches. Reading v Spurs. Available at 6/5 with The Tote and 11/10 at Ladbrokes. I’ve got £1400 on and laid it off at 1.97-1.98. If Spurs win my Betmate balance will be wiped out.
There are decent arbs all over the place today. Roma 2.0 at Ladbrokes 1.85-1.88 on the machine. Got £750 on for a lock of about £40. No limits on Schalke 04, so bet £600 at 4/9, matching out at 1.38 for a profit of £22. Real Madrid were 2/5 with Ladbrokes. Played another 20% joker on a £500 bet and offset £552.50 at 1.37. This produces £35 if Madrid lose and £135 if Ladbrokes add the bonus to the total return as they have done previously and Madrid win. C’mon Madrid.
Found a nice little dutching opportunity on the Chelsea handicaps to make a start on my Canbet reload. Only £4 but every little helps.
So, not bad for a midweek night up £100 or maybe £200 if Madrid can keep their form. I just can’t figure out why most people prefer to be mug punters.
The CL matches this week are throwing up some great matches for matched betting.
Schalke 04 are 4/9 with The Magic Sign. 1.38 on Betmate. I have had matched £600 guaranteeing a profit of £22.
Real Madrid are 2/5 with Ladbrokes. also 1.38 on the Exchange. Roma on wednesday are also approaching arb territory.
My dry spell of Bet365 Feature Race winners has come to an end.
Yesterday I matched Atlantic Story for £50 at 5.0 against 5.1 (a loss of £11.40). My free bet went on Telegonus recovering £40.74 for a profit of £29.34. Today I also chose Kiltimoney for a slightly better match of 5.0 v 5.0 so a loss of £6.24 with tomorrow’s free bet to come. My bet365 a/c is now over £900. If it goes much higher I will have to risk another withdrawal.
Canbet have a 10% bonus on any reloads today as part of their “Advent Calendar”, so have deposited £500 with them to get £50 extra.
Several times each month VC run a horse race tipping competiton. They nominate a meeting and you have pick three horses in three different races. A mythical £1 is put on each selection and paid out at SP if it wins. VC also selects three horses. If you can beat Victor you get a free £5 bet. The two people with the highest overall return win £500 and £100 respectively.
Its always worth a quick look at the site each day to see if they are running this offer. I don’t know how many people enter but have to assume its alot. So, I don’t pick outsiders hoping to win the jackpot.
What I do is to pick the three shortest price horses and hope that one of them wins and that all of Victor’s lose. It only takes about a minute to fire off an email.
Congratulations you are a winner in the “Beat Victor” Tipster competition on Saturday.
You have won a £5 free bet with VC Bet to use on the event of your choice.If you already have a VC Bet account can you please reply to this email with either your username or account number and we will credit your free bet as soon as possible.
VC Bet
Dead easy.
Today got off to a really good start when I got what I think was an extra £100 from Ladbrokes. It certainly increased my profit from the Madrid bet from £39 to £139. The guy in the shop looked at me as if I was a small child when I queried the amount. I guess he wasn’t used to punters saying they have been paid too much. Anyway he counted out the money, told me what good value Ladbrokes is, and said I must come back soon!
I felt telling him once was enough. Of course, its entirely possible that I did make a mistake and he paid me correctly. The “Odds-On” trial is still in its early stages. I will try to put another big bet on again this week to see what happens. (For more details see my earlier post).
I reinvested the cash: £400 on Ipswich v Barnsley @4/6 laid at 1.60. £200 on Millwall vBournemouth @evens laid at 1.90 and one other small arb. For a nice little £20 profit.
Full of confidence, I made my biggest mistake yet on one of Bet365’s Ch4 races. Broke my rule about not leaving myself enough time. Backed Tony McCoy’s Two Miles West for £50 at 7.50 with one minute to go. Then had some sort of computer glitch and couldn’t adjust my lay on Betmate. Tried to lay it in running but there were no takers and the horse fell at the third or four fence. Felt absolutely sick and disgusted with myself. Only £3 had been laid on the exchange so a loss of £47 on the race.
I had a winner 2 races later and a really good match on my free bet which pulled back £51.51 less my loss on the qualifier of £7. So looking at my results for the day I am going to finish well ahead.
However matched betting isn’t like poker where you can bet with the best hand and get outdrawn. This mistake is just a total loss.
Canbet are running an “Advent Calendar”, a different promo every day until Xmas. Today was bet £20 on a premiership game and get a free £20 bet. I backed the draw for Chelsea @5.0 and laid £20 at 5.10. Chelsea won, so I lost 60p in commission but have my free £20 bet to come.
Warning: All Canbet’s free bets must be taken from a special menu on their site. This a heavily restricted list and all the events are well into the future. But eventually it should show a good return.